The 2008 nomination campaign can be divided into four phases: the pre-primary campaign, January, Super Tuesday, and the Spring.
The pre-primary campaign
“Front runner” status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus
listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph Giuliani, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, “leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates”. MSNBC’s Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and John McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.
Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million, the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million. In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul. Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007. Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.
Primaries and caucuses
Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party’s nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.
Both parties have adopted rules to prevent early primaries and have acted to strip some or all delegates from states that have disobeyed. Several, including larger states such as Florida and Michigan, did so, setting up possible credentials fights at the conventions late in the summer.
January 2008
Around the first of the year, the longstanding consensus that the so-called “chattering classes” had agreed to began to fall apart. Support for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front runners Romney and Clinton for first place in Iowa, and suddenly John McCain displaced Rudy Giuliani and Romney as the front-runner in New Hampshire. When Iowa held its caucuses at last, the two upstart campaigns were triumphant.
While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place finish, Obama was suddenly the new front runner in New Hampshire and the Clinton Campaign was struggling. However, in a turning point for her campaign, Clinton’s voice wavered with emotion in a public interview broadcast live on TV. By the end of the day, Clinton won the primary by a couple of points, contrary to the predictions of pollsters who had her as much as twelve points behind on the day of the primary itself. McCain also staged a turnaround victory, having been written off by the pundits and in single digits less than a month before.
With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the Democrats focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special permission to have early contests. In South Carolina Obama got 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina, setting him up for a larger and more important victory in Florida soon after.
February 2008
On February 3 on the UCLA campus, celebrities Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and Stevie Wonder, among others, made appearances to show support for Barack Obama in a rally led by Michelle Obama. Though Obama’s poll numbers increased after this event, putting him only 2% behind Clinton, he ended up losing California by 10%. Analysts cited surprisingly large Latino turnout as the deciding factor.
By February 4, it was apparent that McCain might be able to wrap up the nomination quickly while the 22 primaries and caucuses on the Democratic side might lead to a virtual tie in the delegate count, which to some extent is what happened.
Super Tuesday: On February 5, 2008, the largest-ever simultaneous number of state U.S. presidential primary elections was held. Twenty-four states and American Samoa held either caucuses or primary elections for one or both parties on this date, leaving the Democrats in a virtual tie, and John McCain just short of clinching the Republican nod.
Louisiana and Washington voted for both parties on February 9, while Nebraska and the Virgin Islands vote for the Democrats and Kansas for the Republicans. Obama swept all four Democratic contests, as well as the Maine caucuses the next day, and Huckabee also came out on top in Kansas, winning by an even greater percentage. The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia voted for both parties on February 12 in the so-called Potomac primary. Obama won all three for the Democrats (giving him eight consecutive victories after Super Tuesday) and McCain took all three for the Republicans.
Obama carried both Hawaii and Wisconsin, the last two states that voted for the Democrats in February, on the 19th. Wisconsin and Washington (primary) voted for the Republicans on February 19th; John McCain won these states. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico closed February for the Republicans, on the 23rd and 24th.
March 2008
For the Republicans, on March 1 American Samoa voted. March 4 was dubbed by some as this year’s Mini Tuesday when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, voted for both parties. Wyoming then voted for the Democrats and Guam voted for the Republicans on March 8. Mississippi voted on March 11.
In what some considered a surprise upset of Barack Obama on March 4, Hillary Clinton carried Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island in the Democratic primaries. John McCain clinched the Republican nomination after sweeping all four primaries, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, putting him over the top of the 1,191 delegates required to win the GOP nomination. Mike Huckabee finally conceded the race to McCain. In the Wyoming Democratic caucuses, Obama edged out Clinton to gain 7 delegates to her 5, and three days later he beat her again, 59%-39%, in Mississipi.
Final primaries and caucuses, April through June 2008
Only one state votes in April: Pennsylvania (considered the last chance for Hillary Clinton to catch up with Barack Obama), which will hold a primary for both parties on April 22. Indiana and North Carolina have primaries on May 6. Nebraska’s Republican primary will be on May 13, as will the West Virginia primary for Democrats. Kentucky and Oregon hold primaries for both parties on May 20. Idaho votes for Republicans only on May 27. The primary season ends in June, with contests on June 3 in New Mexico (Republican), Montana (Democratic), and South Dakota (both parties). The final primary will be on June 1st in Puerto Rico for the Democrats. Revotes in Michigan and Florida are possible.[ Michigan Democrats are suggesting a date of June 3.